The Most Likely Fate Of The Trump Presidency

Should Americans be cheering as the Deep State brings down an American President? Expressed in abstract schema form, this question requires an answer considerably more nuanced than the simple ‘yes’ that results if asking ‘Should Americans be cheering as the Deep State brings down an American President as clownishly, offensively incompetent as Donald Trump? (Today’s rambling press conference was merely the latest in a series of incoherent public speaking performances.) Unelected string-pullers bringing down an elected representative of the people–even if one who jets off to a golfing resort every weekend–sounds like the stuff of dystopian nightmares. Cheer now if you will, and pay later when the Deep State happens to dislike a representative you do like. (My ‘yes’ clashes with the anguished ‘no’ that would emanate from the millions of Trumpistas still hoping their anointed Savior will, any moment now, stop bragging about his election and actually get down to some work.)

That things have come to this is an acute indication of just how far through the looking-glass our polity has gone; the national security apparatus–or at least, its intelligence component–is in open warfare with the executive branch, and it is not clear that this battle will end any time soon. If more dirt emerges on the President, including evidence of illegal activity–such as directing Michael Flynn’s contacts with Russian intelligence–this Presidency would be over. (As before, I do not think Trump will be impeached but I think he could be persuaded to resign by his legal advisers. Easier money, even if not as plentiful, will be waiting on the paranoid conservative talk show and lecture circuit; book deals and bestseller lists are all but guaranteed; our culture is truly degraded, and will make ample room for Trump even if he is exiled from the White House.)

There is another possibility, of course. Which is that the Republican Party, whose ability to plumb the depths is apparently still not clear to those who hope that an investigation will be launched into Trump’s malfeasance, will bring in an experienced operator–perhaps someone like James Baker–to calm the waters, negotiate a truce, and start running day-to-day affairs at the White House. The Republican Party will then have the best of all worlds: they will be able to keep a President in power, the loss of whose loyal ‘base’ cannot be afforded; they will be able to exert some control over policy and legislation; and they will be able to keep the most hostile components of the opposition to Trump at bay. I expect this to be the most likely outcome of the current ‘fubar‘ state of affairs. Such a development will certainly come as some disappointment to those of us who were settling down with the popcorn to see what further entertainment was coming down the pike, but I think most of the other President Pence possibilities that have been floated are extremely unlikely. The Republican Party’s bottom line has always been party above country, and all other outcomes put the country first.

2 comments on “The Most Likely Fate Of The Trump Presidency

  1. keithnoback says:

    Do you think wee Donny would allow a puppeteer backstage? He seems too erratic (comes with his particular Axis II disorder) for that maneuver to succeed.
    The Deep State has been around a long time – for good and ill. The Chinese imperial bureaucracy comes to mind. It resisted spoil-sports, even when resistance cost the lives of its constituents.

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